Vladimir Putin faces an ultimatum on his invasion of Ukraine, according to experts and officials in Kiev, as the war continues to take a heavy toll on the Russian military and domestic confidence in the operation.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), “Russia aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026 before likely medium- to long-term economic and force generation limits begin to significantly degrade Russia’s ability to support its war effort in Ukraine.”
ISW quoted comments made on Sunday by Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, at an international conference held in Kyiv.
Budanov said 2025 will be a critical year for Russia in the conflict, as it struggles with personnel shortages and difficulties in military recruitment.
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According to recent analyses by the Rand Corporation, Russia’s “high-casualty tactics” in Ukraine, as well as poor treatment of military personnel, have reduced soldiers’ willingness to fight and public confidence in military operations.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine he said on Tuesday that Russia has lost a total of 635,880 troops since the invasion began in February 2022.
While these numbers are likely excessive, the significant casualties suffered by the Russian military have forced Moscow to engage in more drastic recruitment measures to ensure its army remains staffed.
At the end of July, the mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin announced a one-time payment of 1.9 million rubles ($20,793) for soldiers who sign up, in addition to their monthly salary. In the Chelyabinsk region, these flat-rate payments have been doubled to 705,000 Rubles in mid-July.
ISW takes these measures as evidence of the “mounting costs and difficulties with the ability of the Russian military to continue recruiting personnel.”
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Budanov added that Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, coupled with drone and missile attacks on Russian territory, have eroded support for the war in Russia, and shattered the “myth” of the country’s invincibility.
“With the first explosions in Moscow, this myth was destroyed on the territory of the Russian Federation,” Budanov said on Sunday. “This is the main success of all these long-term strikes.”
Accordingly, Budanov warned that Putin now faces a clock to either launch another mobilization effort, as he did with the country’s military reservists in September 2022, or reduce the intensity of operations in Ukraine.
The failure to secure a victory in Ukraine, he added, also dashed Moscow’s hopes of remaining a global superpower for decades to come.
“These are their calculations. If they do not come out as conditional winners by this time, then for the near future, about 30 years, they will lose the opportunity to be a superpower,” said Budanov. “Then two countries remain: China and the USA. And the maximum that Russia can count on is regional leadership, which does not suit.”
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